The Horizon Report mentions a technology that I believe will be relevant for autonomous combat systems, Semantic-Aware Applications. Such applications would use the meaning of information to make connections between information in order to provide contextually relevant answers. This, combined with other technology such as knowledge management and data mining tools, would facilitate autonomous decision making systems. The Horizon Report puts this technology 4-5 years down the road. This coincides well with the timeline for unmanned combat systems evolution. I do not believe the capability I envision will be mature in that time frame. However, I think it is reasonable to anticipate early implementations of semantic-aware applications to support these systems in that time frame.
The Horizon Report also identifies the concept of "collective intelligence" as a key trend as we move forward. The idea of this concept is loosely that a group should be able to reach a better decision than an individual. MIT has created the Center for Collective Intelligence to explore, "how can people and computers be connected so that—collectively—they act more intelligently than any individuals, groups, or computers have ever done before". This is basically the idea that collaboration will result in better performance than individual actors. This concept is a basic tenet of the DoD theory of net-centricity. Therefore, such research should guide the future evolution of the DoD enterprise.
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ReplyDeleteRegarding semantic-aware applications, I conducted a Google search and two sites caught my interest. The first has a short video introductory presentation on semantic-aware applications.
ReplyDeletehttp://netgened.wikispaces.com/Semantic-Aware+Apps
The second website is by Ben Herr. His blog was number 6 on my Google search for Semantic-Aware Applications.
http://benherrsworld.blogspot.com/2009/07/ctu-cs855-semantic-aware-applications.html
What is powerful and scary about this phenomenon is that we are not experts at semantic-aware applications, yet our posts may influence public opinion faster than we realize.
While the Horizon Report's focus is on the intersection of education, research and creative expression with technology, it is interesting to see how different disciplines may benefit from the research and advances in technology.
ReplyDeleteWe spoke of hindsight this week in our discussion of creativity and innovation and the effects of technological advances on innovation.
The New York Times article "Can Do - And the Pursuit of Happiness" by Maira Kalman uses Benjamin Franklin's inventions to illustrate it.
http://kalman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/can-do/
I think the ability of relative neophytes to directly and dramatically influence the collective understanding is terrifying, while at the same time quite empowering. I enjoy the ability to join in the conversation. However, we lose the ability to differentiate educated deduction from ignorant opinion. In the past, village idiots were isolated. Today, technology allows them to band together. The assumption underlying “Web 2.0” that, “service automatically gets better, the more people use it,” is tenuous at best. We run the risk of being dominated by conventional wisdom rather than reasoned thought and proven fact. For example, any random group of Americans is likely to credit U.S. space program with the creation of Tang and Velcro. Both of these are widely held beliefs that are frequently perpetuated in the media, and they are both incorrect. We need to remain diligent as we continue pursuing the power of collective wisdom.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.promotionworld.com/internet/articles/090824-attemtp-understand-Web-20
Interesting. I was just reading an article from http://www.draper.com/autonomousys/autonomous.html which traced the autonomous vehicle management systems to the 1950s during the design of the autonomous guidance, navigation, and control systems for NASA’s Apollo spacecraft and the U.S. Navy’s undersea-launched ballistic missiles.
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