Opening thoughts on autonomy and power

The amount of data exchanged between combat systems is rapidly increasing. This presents a dilemma for battlefield systems where the lack of infrastructure forces reliance on radio communications. There is a finite amount of radio spectrum and the amount of information that can be communicated in this spectrum is limited by physics. Furthermore, radio signals take time to propogate and this can lead to latencies of several seconds which can be catastrophic in a combat environment.

Battlefield systems will become increasingly autonomous. The systems will execute combat maneuvers (e.g. dogfight) and engage targets (guns, missiles, bombs, etc.) without direct human control. This will allow systems such as unmanned fighters and bombers to overcome the limitations of radio communications. The systems will be able to identify enemy forces and select appropriate offensive and defensive actions without human intervention. The only thing a human operator will need to do is assign an objective or mission. This will enable a single remote operator to command groups of vehicles.

Autonomous systems will be required to operate under human supervision, as opposed to control. However, that supervision may not be continuous. This is the same way many human teams work. The supervisor/commander assigns the target/mission and dispatches a team to carry out the task. It is common for teams to operate without continuous supervision. However, before people are allowed to operate independently in this manner, they are typically required to demonstrate a specific set of knowledge and skills. Likewise, an autonomous system would have to demonstrate its ability to operate properly across its full operational envelope. We'll never be 100% confident that they won't make an error. However, the same is true of humans. We'll need a review process to assess and address the root cause of autonomous system errors just like we do for human errors.

Another issue for combat forces is power. This has been a major issue since World War II where German tanks had to wait for horse drawn fuel wagons to catch up. Today, we must ship tons of fuel to power engines and generators whenever and wherever we deploy forces. Fuel also limits the flight time of unmanned vehicles. Alternative energy sources will be developed and integrated into combat systems. This will mitigate our dependence on transported fuel and enable missions of greater range, speed, and duration. One exciting possibility is photovoltaic paint that would turn nearly any surface into a solar cell.