War 2.0

Web 2.0 has become a bit of a buzz-word. However, researchers and developers are creating interactive programs that pull content from multiple data sources to make synergistic applications that are more useful than the sum of their parts. The MITRE corporation is researching this area with its Tagged and Geotemporal Reporting (TAGR) project. TAGR uses the IBM Mashup Framework to provide situational awareness and redirection of unmanned devices. This type of composable capability could serve as a data source for future autonomous systems. However, there may be implications that warrant further consideration. For example, how can the accuracy and timeliness of mashed up information be established and how do you reconcile conflicting sources of information? Humans deal with these types of issues daily. However, it would seem that autonomous systems would need to be given similar decision making abilities.

Technology on the Horizon

The Horizon Report mentions a technology that I believe will be relevant for autonomous combat systems, Semantic-Aware Applications. Such applications would use the meaning of information to make connections between information in order to provide contextually relevant answers. This, combined with other technology such as knowledge management and data mining tools, would facilitate autonomous decision making systems. The Horizon Report puts this technology 4-5 years down the road. This coincides well with the timeline for unmanned combat systems evolution. I do not believe the capability I envision will be mature in that time frame. However, I think it is reasonable to anticipate early implementations of semantic-aware applications to support these systems in that time frame.

The Horizon Report also identifies the concept of "collective intelligence" as a key trend as we move forward. The idea of this concept is loosely that a group should be able to reach a better decision than an individual. MIT has created the Center for Collective Intelligence to explore, "how can people and computers be connected so that—collectively—they act more intelligently than any individuals, groups, or computers have ever done before". This is basically the idea that collaboration will result in better performance than individual actors. This concept is a basic tenet of the DoD theory of net-centricity. Therefore, such research should guide the future evolution of the DoD enterprise.

Robots of War

PW Singer presents an interesting perspective on the impacts robots are having on human warfare in this video clip http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/pw_singer_on_robots_of_war.html

Will autonomous combat systems work in favor of large nation states or smaller non-state actors?

Will the use of autonomous combat systems make nations more likely to go to war?

Opening thoughts on autonomy and power

The amount of data exchanged between combat systems is rapidly increasing. This presents a dilemma for battlefield systems where the lack of infrastructure forces reliance on radio communications. There is a finite amount of radio spectrum and the amount of information that can be communicated in this spectrum is limited by physics. Furthermore, radio signals take time to propogate and this can lead to latencies of several seconds which can be catastrophic in a combat environment.

Battlefield systems will become increasingly autonomous. The systems will execute combat maneuvers (e.g. dogfight) and engage targets (guns, missiles, bombs, etc.) without direct human control. This will allow systems such as unmanned fighters and bombers to overcome the limitations of radio communications. The systems will be able to identify enemy forces and select appropriate offensive and defensive actions without human intervention. The only thing a human operator will need to do is assign an objective or mission. This will enable a single remote operator to command groups of vehicles.

Autonomous systems will be required to operate under human supervision, as opposed to control. However, that supervision may not be continuous. This is the same way many human teams work. The supervisor/commander assigns the target/mission and dispatches a team to carry out the task. It is common for teams to operate without continuous supervision. However, before people are allowed to operate independently in this manner, they are typically required to demonstrate a specific set of knowledge and skills. Likewise, an autonomous system would have to demonstrate its ability to operate properly across its full operational envelope. We'll never be 100% confident that they won't make an error. However, the same is true of humans. We'll need a review process to assess and address the root cause of autonomous system errors just like we do for human errors.

Another issue for combat forces is power. This has been a major issue since World War II where German tanks had to wait for horse drawn fuel wagons to catch up. Today, we must ship tons of fuel to power engines and generators whenever and wherever we deploy forces. Fuel also limits the flight time of unmanned vehicles. Alternative energy sources will be developed and integrated into combat systems. This will mitigate our dependence on transported fuel and enable missions of greater range, speed, and duration. One exciting possibility is photovoltaic paint that would turn nearly any surface into a solar cell.