True autonomous systems will require some level of decision making ability. Will this be a complex expert system or will it truly be artificial intelligence (AI)? I first studied AI nearly 20 years ago. Back then, there was great hope and excitement for the possibility of true AI in the not so distant future. And then nothing happened. Computers are immensely more powerful today yet they remain unable to match the thought and creativity of a child. I believe that autonomous systems of the next decade will be highly complex yet capable expert systems. We will only trust them to operate within pre-defined envelopes. Our challenge will be to define these performance envelopes in such a way as to enable the systems to address unforeseen circumstances within their envelopes.
Halal [1] believes that developments in AI will lead us to an “age of consciousness” around 2020-2030. In his vision, AI will free us from thinking about, “routine mental tasks,” so that we may focus on spiritual dilemmas (i.e., competing values, beliefs, etc.). I have two issues with this vision. First, I don’t believe AI will progress as rapidly or effectively as Halal. Second, I do not agree with his assumption that people, freed of menial tasks, will become altruistic and give up their personal beliefs in order to seek the common good.
[1] Halal, William. (2008). Technology’s promise. Expert knowledge on the transformation of business and society. Palgrave Macmillan. New York.
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